- Nutresa’s acquisitions in Venezuela, Ecuador and Colombia are complicating valuation and raising questions over controlling shareholder Gilinski’s financial policy
- Management defended the deals’ low EBITDA multiples and expects a more visible contribution from them in 2027
- Q3 adjusted EBITDA rose 31.8% YoY in dollars to $291.6m, with the margin widening to 18.2% from 17%
- Net leverage climbed to 4.09x amid roughly $599m of buybacks, while 2027 shareholder distribution plans remain in place
For Venezuelans, Tío Rico ice cream can bring back childhood memories, even decades after leaving the country. Ecuadorians may feel the same about La Universal’s Manicho chocolates, and Colombians about Presto burgers. All these are brands that Nutresa is snapping up in an aggressive regional expansion. And for some US investors, the deals are making the company considerably harder to value, sources told 9fin.
Local market participants also see uncertainty, but in their case it’s from the growing unpredictability of controlling shareholder Jaime Gilinski.
The expansion comes as leverage has risen once again and the company is sending conflicting signals, a source at a local brokerage said. “One day they say they want to improve their credit rating, but the next they issue a hybrid bond or buy Presto, which is bankrupt,” the source added.
Adding to those doubts are nearly COP 2tn (approx. $599m) of share buybacks between January and September of this year, and company-reported net leverage of 4.09x, up from 3.73x at year-end 2025. The ratio counts 50% of the hybrid as debt.
Still, the relatively small size of some acquisitions could limit their credit impact. Nutresa also improved its EBITDA margin in Q3, while diversification could help stabilize the business, according to some sources.
Sales rose 21% year-over-year in dollar terms to about $1.5bn in Q3 26, per earnings, while volumes rose 2.5%. In COP terms, sales fell 3.4%, mainly on currency effects. Adjusted EBITDA increased 31.8% in dollars to $291.6m, compared with 3.6% growth in COP, lifting the margin to 18.2% from 17%.
In the first nine months, adjusted EBITDA rose 43.9% in USD to $839.8m. Reported EBITDA increased 21.6% in pesos to COP 2.83tn (around $810m), though attributable net income fell 60.8% in pesos to COP 377.5bn (around $108m), weighed down by non-recurring expenses and unrealized FX effects, chiefly linked to dollar-debt hedges.
Nutresa attributed the margin improvement to efficiencies, hedging and lower input prices. Its dollar-denominated raw materials index was 23% lower YoY over the nine months.
Facing El Niño, the company accelerated cocoa, coffee and wheat hedging. It said it had completed its 2026 commodity hedging by July and covered up to 30% of its 2027 requirements.
What’s an ice cream worth?
Nutresa’s rapid expansion includes Tío Rico in Venezuela, in a deal Bloomberg estimated at around $30m, La Universal in Ecuador, and a deal for Presto’s assets and brands in Colombia. Nutresa also added Mimo’s, another Colombian ice cream chain, and agreed to buy Empaques Industriales de Colombia. In August, Gilinski put the combined cost of Tío Rico and La Universal at around $100m, but he has not disclosed Presto’s purchase price.
Gilinski defended the acquisitions, citing low EBITDA multiples and describing them as “cash flow generative very quickly” on the 3 November call. He expects a more visible contribution in 2027.
The Venezuelan acquisition is small for Nutresa and offers strategic value, even if it is unlikely to generate much cash, an investment bank analyst said. “It is a sales platform to build out its presence in the country,” they added. Gilinski said Tío Rico would allow Nutresa to distribute the group’s other brands.
Presto raises more questions. Its operator was in judicial liquidation, and the business faces stiff competition, the source said. Still, synergies with El Corral, Nutresa’s Colombian burger chain, could be positive, the source added.
Gilinski highlighted those synergies and said Nutresa had been able to acquire the business “without any liabilities.” The asset deal provides for the assumption of employment obligations associated with transferring staff. He plans to operate around 100 restaurants and relaunch the brand.
Buybacks and debt
On the recent call discussing Q3 results, one analyst asked about share buybacks while leverage remained high, and another questioned their rationale, citing negative free cash flow after repurchases. Nutresa had repurchased 6.67m shares as of 30 September.
The company said it did not expect further buybacks or dividends in Q4, but retained plans for 2027 distributions equivalent to 20%-30% of 2026 EBITDA, without making them conditional on leverage falling below 3.5x.
Nutresa expects net leverage of 3.5x-4x at year-end 2026, helped by working capital releases as it draws down coffee and cocoa inventories, CFO Andrés Bernal said on the call. Some 70% of debt carries fixed rates, with the main maturities in 2030 and 2035.
Loans to shareholders add another layer to Nutresa’s valuation. “It is a difficult company to value because it made a loan to shareholders,” a source at a local brokerage said. “The company’s cash flow is not under that much pressure because part of the debt was used to lend to shareholders, who automatically make payments.”
On its Q2 call, Nutresa reported a $1.5bn shareholder loan financed with debt and preferred shares.
For some, however, the concern is “how unpredictable the owner is,” said one source.
Nutresa has pursued a very aggressive financial policy, the source added. Its bet appears to be on margin gains bringing leverage down. How long it can sustain that pace is difficult to assess, the source said, “especially if you are chasing margins by selling chocolate bars.”
Despite the uncertainty, Nutresa’s stability remains a strength, some sources said. Diversification across coffee, chocolate, proteins, ice cream and restaurants could temper its exposure to individual raw materials. “Bimbo, for example, depends on wheat,” the investment bank source said. “Nutresa has a wide range of foods, so if one goes down, another goes up.”
